Posted by Menachem Lubinsky on August 9, 2010 under Recession | 
A young 30-ish couple recently recounted what they called their “horror” story of a business and a livelihood that was about to collapse. After studying in a yeshiva for 5 years, David and his wife Molly opened a small retail store with money from in-laws and an older brother. The business appeared to be doing well during the first two years, enough so that they decided to expand the business to an on-line operation.
David admitted that he got “carried away” with the on-line, so much so that he apparently neglected the retail establishment. He used whatever profits he made in the store to prop up the on-line business. Within two years, he found himself with a mounting debt, insufficient take home funds, and a business that was on the verge of collapse. You guessed it; he blamed much of his troubles on a business slowdown due to the recession but a closer look showed that the economic downturn was only a minor factor.
Doing some forensics on the business, I found that it had potential and that it would be a shame to close it down. That’s when I recommended that the business retain a consultant to help restructure the business, or as I sometime believe is to restructure the “thinking” on the business.
The consultant divided the tasks at hand to include debt restructuring, infrastructure, and future business model. Although there were some bitter pills to swallow, David recognized that the alternative was to shut down the business altogether, something he shuddered to think about. He admitted that one of his hires was doing tasks he did in the beginning, but when he got busy with the e-commerce, he retained the help. The consultant forced him to lay off the “expensive” worker, to resume doing those tasks himself and to suspend further investment into the on-line business.
Molly, who had been led to believe that the business was doing extremely well, simply withdrew to care for her home and the children. She was very instrumental in the early success of the business. She seemed to have an excellent rapport with customers and did the buying very well. The obvious recommendation was for her to return to rebuild the retail establishment.
The debt restructuring went much better than expected as most of the creditors were only too happy to have the business continue in a recession. Some insisted on COD but most even granted the business better credit terms than before. A few were adamant that David share his plans for the future, to simply make them more comfortable that there is a future in the business.
One of the biggest challenges was getting David to reposition his thinking of the business. It seems that in the past he lost focus on his core business and “jumped” to other ventures. This caused him to perhaps overlook opportunities that he had with his original business.
Restructuring has become a necessity for many businesses dealing with the reality of doing business in a down economy. There is no cookie cutter model that applies to all businesses, but I have found that there are some common denominators, most of which David and Molly had to deal with. For example, many people allow debt to pile up simply because they are somehow convinced that better days lie ahead. When the sun does not shine, as expected, the roof can cave in.
I strongly believe that many businesses end up in trouble simply because they do not reach out for professional help. One business consultant remarked that not reaching out for professional help is like “talking to yourself.” It is really important to include someone who is not emotionally attached to the business and who can offer objective advice.
Reconstructing, say business experts, can sometimes simply mean retooling. They recommend that every business take stock of their status and re-evaluate the way they do business. What worked a decade ago may no longer be applicable in today’s rapidly changing business environment. There should be no fear of making a business “leaner and meaner,” the experts say.
David and Molly seem to be on their way to recovery even as uncertainty remains whether the economy as a whole is in recovery. They now understand the value of being focused on the profit center before venturing on to other enterprises. As it turns out, David has not given up on the on-line business and was at this writing negotiating with another entity to merge the sites. One of the benefits would be that the other entity has strong on-line management. Restructuring may not be for everyone, but then again, maybe it just is!
Posted by Menachem Lubinsky on July 14, 2010 under Out of the Box, Recession |
By Menachem Lubinsky
Miriam, an office manager with seven years of experience, was laid off nearly six months ago when her company made some drastic cutbacks in the face of the continuing recession. The company consolidated her position with another key job to save one salary. At first she thought that her experience would help her land a job quickly but that has not happened. Miriam, like so many other unemployed workers has been hearing that the recession may be winding down, but for some reason she is still out of her job. She has stayed in touch with her former employer “just in case” he is hiring again, but that has not happened as yet, and she may just not be able to wait too much longer. The few interviews she did receive were more suitable for entry-level with a severe cut in salary.
Each month, when some of the key economic indicators are released, it seems that the number of jobs continue to decline, but a closer look at the jobs picture in June might offer a glimmer of hope. The nation is said to have lost 125,000 jobs in June, but the unemployment rate actually dropped to 9.5%, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. But many of those jobs were temporary employees working on Census 2010. The private-sector payroll employment actually increased by 83,000.
If the most recent data holds up, Miriam should soon be back either at her former employer’s business or somewhere else. Perhaps seasonal, employment rose by 28,000 in amusements and recreation. Approximately 21,000 jobs were added in temporary help services. There were also additions in professional and business services, management and technical consulting (+11,000), business support services (+7,000), transportation and warehousing (+15,000), health care employment (+9,000), and manufacturing employment (+9,000).
For people like Miriam, a temporary solution might be a temporary job. Many forms who are still not sure about rehiring full-time employees are instead hiring people for projects or on a temporary basis. There is evidence to suggest that many of these temporary jobs are indeed turning into full-time jobs as many businesses continue to experience an improved business climate.
The added jobs in various sectors is noteworthy for a variety of reasons. For one, it gives a job seeker an idea just where the jobs might be. Clearly, there are various industries that are in a recovery mode while others are not. While health care is one of the growing categories, for example, the hospitality industry is not. There may always be an opportunity for temporary jobs such as the Census workers, the clean-up crews for the BP oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico and perhaps with the midterm elections around the corner, there will be many temporary jobs helping governors, senators and congressmen get elected.
In speaking with several job counselors, it seems that becoming disillusioned about finding a job is one of the worst problems they face with job seekers. One told me of a young man who had been looking for a year and out of sheer frustration said: “I will give this one more week and then I will have to consider an alternate course.” He found a good job within the week. The counselors say that timing is everything in a job search. Just because someone has failed to get an interview for weeks on end does not mean that it cannot happen and often revisiting an earlier potential employer can work out as well.
Many people like Miriam have found success in looking for employment with competitors who may just cherish the idea of hiring an experienced employee who knows the industry and the business. It seems that the recovery may not be on a level playing field in that while some businesses in an industry are indeed recovering, others may still be mired in the recession. This appears to be the case in retail as several chains have recovered nicely while others are still in the throes of the recession.
“Looking for a job,” said one of the counselors, “requires a bit of common sense and a bit of research.” The commons sense, he pointed out, was to approach potential employers who might have shown an interest in the past or in fact going back to past employers. The research is to know exactly what is happening in the industry you’ve been involved with before.
For job seekers this period might be a bit confusing because of the mixed signals that one gets reading the press these days. Perhaps the good news is that the signals are mixed as opposed to the “One Way” downward direction of just a year ago. It might make it a bit more difficult to negotiate, but there is activity and there is hope. The fact that the private sector has added 83,000 jobs in just one month is encouraging. If the July numbers, due out in August, continue that trend, it will be a clear signal that the economy has turned the corner and more jobs may be on the horizon.
Out of the Box is a collection of strategic marketing articles that Menachem Lubinsky has published on various topics, trends and ideas in the marketing world. The articles have been published in the Hamodia weekly newspaper circulated on three continents to a readership of well over 100,000.
The name, “Out of the Box” is a term used frequently in business nowadays to describe creative thinking that is not the norm. It is meant to help a business pull away from the pack or separate oneself from the competition. It is to some extent fraught with risk, simply because it is not the run of the mill thinking, but it is at the same time the key to reaching the next opportunity.
Posted by Menachem Lubinsky on March 24, 2010 under Recession |
By Menachem Lubinsky
A column I wrote in this space several weeks ago generated an unprecedented response. The subject was the competition between younger and older people for the same scarce jobs. Much of the feedback that I received revolved around personal experiences of people who felt that they were unfairly victimized because of their age. Several were young people who wondered how you can get a job that calls for experience without getting the experience. There seemed to be a common thread that related to the hardships many families face as a result of the recession, ranging from layoffs to business failures.
Many of the people seemed to find the answer in a “second” income. Americans have long become accustomed to the concept of two incomes in a family but increasingly more spouses have pitched in with some kind of income producing venture that helps the family bottom line. Without getting into the social implications for society, I heard of a number of stories that may be worth sharing.
David, a 31-year old father of three, lost his job as a production manager for a trade publication. After six months of job-hunting, he was still not any closer to a job. A job counselor advised him to take some courses in sales with the idea that there were many sales jobs available. It turned out that the compensation for most of the offers was based on commission with little or no fixed salaries.
Eve, David’s stay-at-home wife had started to dabble in a home-based graphics business focusing on a specific industry. She called the money her business made “spending money” and had little time to either plan or actually expand the business. It was at this point that David came up with what he called “an insane idea” to try to build up his wife’s business. He had after all invested the time in the sales training. That was eight months ago. David indeed developed the business, is no longer looking for a job, and the couple is now seriously considering a move to a nearby office building and hiring a clerical person.
Joe, a manager in a small machinery parts business, was having increased difficulty in paying bills. At 30, his two children were in pre-school and the cost of tuition alone was “choking” him. His wife worked part-time at the office of a local dentist but he was increasingly worried about his job. His boss had already notified the staff that sales were off by about 20%. That’s when an idea hit him. Perhaps he could work out some arrangement with his boss to sell the parts on-line. Thankfully, his boss dismissed the idea and agreed to share in the profits provided that Joe made the investment. He did, and left his job devoting his energy to his new successful business.
For many people, a “second income” means taking on another job. A local yeshiva recently hired a Jr. Accountant for Sundays to do journal entries and prepare reports for the accountants. A restaurant hired a mashgiach (kosher supervisor) to replace their full-time mashgiach during weekends.
The challenges of producing enough income for a household are ever-present but so much greater in a recession. It requires a bit of creativity and “out-of-the-box” thinking like David and Joe, whose answers were right in front of their noses. I recently read about a company that sells amenity kits to hotels and corporations on the West Coast. The gist of the story in an in-flight magazine was that the company had gone “green” and was selling the hotels products that were environmentally sound. There was one line in the article that caught my eye. It spoke about the nephew of the boss who had been laid off from a computer consulting job and decided to expand the business to the Central states with great success.
Al, a self-employed real estate broker had fallen on hard times. At 57, he was having difficulty finding a full-time job and his wife who had worked most of her life suffered from crippling arthritis. Here briefly is his story, in his own words: “I was at the point where I was ready to accept the fact that I would have to rely on benefits just to get by when I took stock of my experience. I realized that I knew many building managers and owners and that they would occasionally ask me for a good repairman. I hired two handymen that were looking for work and started to call and visit all my contacts. In the last four months, I have been averaging $30,000 a month in repairs, enough to pay my bills. I still, here and there, make some money on brokerage.”
A second income, whether for self or a spouse, is obviously not for everyone. Many people’s life circumstances prevent them from even considering a second income, but for those who can entertain the idea, it is a good way to beat the recession. There are many people whose careers were launched in a down economic climate because they had an idea that worked out.
Posted by Menachem Lubinsky on January 18, 2010 under Recession |
The word “recovery” is being used with increased frequency; yet the experts are still afraid to say the word. While the economy is showing some signs of a recovery, it is also still apparently mired in a deep recession, hardly the time to declare that the economy is in recovery.
You might say that we are living in a period with extremely mixed signals. There was the news that people are beginning to refinance their homes, a good sign for the sluggish housing market. But it turns out that the refinance surge was due to an anticipated hike in the interest rate. In addition, the number of foreclosures continues to increase. In New York, stimulus funds are being used to encourage people to buy foreclosed homes as the inventory of such homes shows no signs of abating.
There was a report that the service sector had begun to hire once again. True to some extent, but on the flip side is a double-digit unemployment figure and that does not include the millions of people who are no longer looking for jobs. It is not a secret that the unemployment figures do not include the disenfranchised who have given up looking for a job.
Of course, the stock market has been doing better of late. Should that not mean that the recovery is here? Again, the mixed signals. Some of the strong institutions like Citibank are struggling and no one is sure just how long this “rally” will last. For some the climb back is so steep that there is little solace in the market’s resurgence.
So it may be a bit premature to use the word recovery for the economy as a whole, but it might be in order for certain sectors or even businesses. For example, the retail sector seemed to have a better than expected holiday season. Travel is making somewhat of a comeback. But again, these gains are modest and economists wonder how enduring they may be.
Several businesses that I am familiar with say that they feel that they are in a recovery mode. OK, it is possible for the economy to be in a recession and for individual businesses to be in a recovery. A service business I know has consolidated its operations and is doing much better. They certainly feel that they are in a recovery. In an earlier article, I pointed out how it is possible to take a business from an economic downturn to profitability. The formula is to control expenses and to operate on a much leaner basis.
I know a business that has cut two major brands from its inventory. The company realized that these two brands were not only not carrying their weight; they were draining the company’s successful brands. It was not an easy decision because there was no telling that the two struggling would not return to profitability at some point in the future. The company first sought to sell off the brands but found few takers. It had to take the bitter pill of disposing of the brands, but as it turned out it was not so bitter after all as the company returned to profitability enabling it to launch a new brand that stood a better chance than the two brands it dropped.
A company in recovery acts the way the economy would act if it was finally at that point. The company is much more secure in investing in its future just as people would do were the economy to be in a recovery. This is distinctly different from a recession where people hold onto their money, fearful that the hard times dictated to keep as much cash on hand and certainly not to plunge into ventures that have less than a promising future
So how does one know if a business is indeed a recovery? Economists like to think that it is all in the “graph.” They are loathe to call a temporary bump a recovery but are apt to accept that if a company, for example has had steady growth in 3 periods (quarters) that it might indeed be in a recovery mode. They also tend to evaluate other trends such as new business, the state of the competition, and some valid signals from consumers that that the recovery is not a passing fad.
The economists warn that a premature reaction to a presumed recovery is dangerous. A client I had not heard from in more than four years suddenly called to explore a rather ambitious marketing program. He seemed to feel comfortable that the worst was over and that it was time to embark on a marketing program we had discussed four years earlier. Our negotiations took several weeks and then the communications between us went dead. When I finally did catch up with him, his business seemed to be in a tailspin due to an investment that had soured. He admitted that he had seen the signals but chose to ignore them, believing that he could weather the storm. The marketing program was put on hold.
I, of course, wish that we were in a recovery and certainly hope that whatever business you are in it is in a recovery mode, but in a real way, which means that the direction of the graph is headed in only one direction: up!
